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Presentation: Update to retail sales forecasts in FY25e

Recovery is underway

25 October 2024

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed our updated outlook for retail sales and the drivers of a recovery in retail spending. In the presentation, we answer the question of whether consumers will spend or save their income growth, quantifying the impact of rate cuts and tax cuts, which retail categories we expect to outperform in FY25e, and a comparison of Australia with offshore markets.

Presentation: Retail sales outlook for FY25e

Webinar presentation

29 July 2024

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed the updated outlook for retail sales and key drivers that could trigger an improvement in spending. In the presentation, we provide an update on the outlook for retail sales, covering feedback on recent trading and expectations for FY25e. We will address which categories have the best potential for volume recovery and how they are navigating price disinflation. We will also address the risk from interest rates on retail. The presentation also includes insights about retailer profitability, inventory levels, and expectations for retail trading at the FY24e results in August.

City Chic’s exit of Avenue and capital raising conclude an incredibly painful experience of global ambition and then retreat. The City Chic brand has a strong following in Australia but has been impacted by excess inventory. The company is addressing its cost base but more savings will be needed to restore profitability. Moreover, store openings seem unlikely at this stage given the poor sales productivity.

Presentation: Update to the retail outlook for 2024

Webinar presentation

11 April 2024

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed the updated outlook for retail sales and key drivers that could trigger an improvement in spending. In the presentation, we also address the outlook for interest rates, price inflation and population growth. While tax cuts will help sales later in 2024, lower retail price inflation, higher unemployment and a shift of spend to travel and automobiles will all limit the upside in industry sales growth. The presentation also includes insights about retailer profitability, inventory levels, and sales trajectory following results from the 6 months to December 2023.

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