Sigma reported FY26 EBIT sales up 16% and EBIT up 21% on a normalised basis. Sales trends were slightly slower in 2H26 and we expect 10% to 11% Australian like-for-like (LFL) sales growth in FY27e. For a company with double-digit sales growth, operating leverage is low. Sigma had 43bp of EBIT margin expansion in FY26, with lower gross margins partially offsetting fixed cost leverage. We forecast 43bp of margin expansion again in FY27e. We expect a bigger contribution from International earnings with faster store openings. International EBIT could double in two years.

Coles Group reported FY26 EBIT growth of 10% driven by better gross margins and tight cost control in its Supermarket business. The outlook for margin expansion from here is limited given Supermarket margins are at a decade high and cost inflation will be elevated in the next 12 months. Coles Liquor business may stabilise earnings, but its EBIT margin of less than 2% looks like persisting for some time. Coles will spend more capex on supermarket renewals and automated DCs. This is sensible investment but does mean that free cash flow will be limited.

Chemist Warehouse has sustained double-digit comparable sales growth for three consecutive years. The retailer has won market share from other pharmacies and Coles and Woolworths. Chemist Warehouse advantages are its pricing tactics and breadth of range. While Coles and Woolworths are unlikely to fix their ranging issue, they may adjust pricing tactics. Chemist Warehouse is cheaper than the supermarkets when comparing shelf prices to Chemist Warehouse’ standard price, but much less so when comparing promotional prices. The risk to Chemist Warehouse is that Coles and Woolworths use everyday low pricing tactics to improve their relative pricing to Chemist Warehouse. They have begun lowering prices on high profile products and more will come over the next 12 months. We may see a slowdown in Chemist Warehouse sales growth towards single digits over the next year.

Woolworths is undertaking a program called Customer Offer Reset (COR), which will reduce its branded range and shift more products to an every day low pricing (EDLP) proposition called Lower Shelf Price (LSP). The program will show up on shelf shortly and impact the next two years. COR and LSP should be positive for sales and earnings, but it does depend on the competitor response. These programs demonstrate a sharper focus by Woolworths on execution and price trust. While not solely related to COR and LSP, we expect Woolworths to sustain above market (and Coles) growth over the next year and EBIT margin expansion.

Coles reported 3Q26 sales growth of 3.1%. While 3Q26 sales lagged its rival, Coles Supermarket track-record has been superior to rivals and the market over the past three years. Its Supermarket growth rate is likely to converge with Woolworths over the next nine months in our view. In Liquor, Coles rebranding has not delivered any earnings improvement and former First Choice stores could be shut down in our view. Coles looks to have enough flexibility to manage the fuel price and inflationary pressures near-term. The more important debate will be the ability of the two major supermarkets to ensure ongoing healthy rates of sales growth, which should occur as food inflation accelerates over the next year.

Sigma reported 1H26 normalised revenue growth of 15% and EBIT growth of 19%. The sales result was strong but the modest operating leverage is a reminder of the inherently low gross margins in the business. Sales trends are strong but likely to slow from here. We expect LFL to remain double-digit in 2H26e, but then slip into single-digit territory for FY27e as the company laps higher growth and price inflation fades. Going forward, each 1% sales growth to translate into approximately 1.5% EBIT growth. Synergies will continue to help earnings over the next four years.

Coles Group reported 2.5% sales growth and 10.2% EBIT growth in 1H26. The key driver of earnings was higher gross profit margins, which should persist in 2H26e, but then fade in future years. Cost savings and productivity benefits from its supply chain investment are also boosting profit margins. Coles sales trends have slowed highlighting the Woolworths DC strike benefit was transitory. However, its growth still outstripped Woolworths on a two-year basis. Coles has de-rated over the past month and its sales momentum is likely to converge with Woolworths over the next 3-6 months.

Coles Group reported 1Q26 sales growth of 3.9% and an impressive 4.6% comparable sales growth in its Supermarkets. While the result is strong, the momentum is likely to slow as its larger rival Woolworths starts to improve its execution. Coles also faces a 2Q26e hurdle from DC strike benefits in 2Q25 and a diminishing contribution from new stores. We expect Liquor EBIT to decline again in FY26e.

Sigma Warehouse reported its 1Q26 sales at its AGM. Chemist Warehouse like-for-like sales were up 14.7% for the quarter, an acceleration on FY25 trends. The company highlighted elevated sales of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic as a big contributor. We estimate the contribution is anywhere from 3%-5% of the LFL growth. We expect LFL sales to settle back at 11% in 2Q26e and 9.0% in 2H26e.

Sigma reported FY25 network sales growth for Chemist Warehouse of 14% and EBIT at $903 million, up 47%. The company reported a continuation of double-digit like-for-like sales growth with a lift in profit margins for the underlying Chemist Warehouse business. We forecast EBIT growth of 22% in FY26e ahead of revenue growth of 15%. Margins will be helped by penetration of Wagner private label, operating leverage from strong comp sales and the increasing synergies over the next four years.