Harvey Norman reported a 2% increase in system sales but a 7% drop in group EBITDA for 1H23. The result showed margin pressure from increased discounting across its businesses. The deterioration in its recent sales trends suggests it will be a tougher 2H23e and FY24e in our view. An added risk for Harvey Norman is the higher than usual franchisee inventory holdings, which could squeeze margins further over the next 12 months. We expect margins to largely normalise to pre COVID-19 levels as sales slow and discounting levels increase.

The Australian national accounts for the December 2022 quarter foreshadow the dynamic that will play out in 2023. Wages growth is strong, but disposable income is weak. Consumers are also switching back to more normal spending habits with strong recovery in recreation. So far retail has not felt the effects, but under the surface there is already weakness. Retail sales growth of 9% year on year in the December quarter was largely a function of price. As we move into 2023, the fade in retail inflation contribute meaningfully to weaker sales growth. While savings rates are now below 2019 levels, the stored up savings from the last two years are still yet to be spent. For more, please see our report Retail forecasts for 2023 – Brace for Impact, January 2023.

Amazon Australia’s 2022 financial results reveal the retailer has delivered very strong sales growth with improving profitability. This is in stark contrast to the declining sales and loss-making results for some online pure plays. In our view, Amazon is investing for the long-term, which is evident in its distribution centre infrastructure, marketing investment and Amazon Prime membership, which may now be one in four Australian households. The debate in our mind is how much money and time will be spent by Wesfarmers and Woolworths trying to establish their own online ecosystem. We expect it to be costly for all involved.

City Chic’s 1H23 result shows the financial cost of its elevated inventory position. The second-half will also be loss-making based on our forecasts. However, the more fundamental question is the magnitude of its recovery in profit margins and the path to a net cash position. Both seem likely. However, investors will need patience. While still facing a challenging six months, conditions are likely to improve.

Domino’s reported network sales down 4% and EBIT down 21% in 1H23. The worrying sign near-term is weak same store sales growth (SSSg) trends persisted into 2H23e and the company has seen a volume reaction to its price rises, limiting its much-needed improvement in system profitability. Our primary concern is the deterioration of franchisee profitability which is trending 30% below recent peaks and at a level that will discourage new store openings.

Coles reported 1H23 sales up 4% and EBIT up 14%. The result showed good growth on the surface, however, reduced COVID-19 costs and the accounting associated with Express earnings drove growth. While sales growth should remain strong, inflation is peaking and operating cost growth could stay elevated too. Coles’ change of CEO comes at a crucial time where delivery of new distribution centres should drive earnings over the next three years.

Woolworths reported a strong improvement in profit margins in 1H23 driven by its Australian Food segment. COVID-19 costs have unwound and cost efficiency programs are delivering results. We expect further margin gains in 2H23e, albeit at a smaller rate. The challenge for Woolworths is its profit margins will be close to long-term averages by the end of FY23e and EPS growth may step down to single-digits in FY24e and beyond.

Costa Group reported a weak FY22 result with sales up 11%, but EBITDA down 2%. The quality of its citrus crop dragged down pricing and profit margins significantly. Elsewhere, berries and mushrooms showed good pricing growth, while tomato prices were down. The company had high cost growth in FY22 and there will be additional freight and wage cost headwinds.

Inghams reported 1H23 sales up 9% and EBITDA down 16%. The contrast between sales and earnings reflects higher prices, more than offset by higher costs. The magnitude of the price rises is significant and will be an even greater contribution to sales in 2H23e on our estimates.

Super Retail Group’s strong 1H23 result was accompanied by accelerating sales in its January 2023 trading update. Can the company buck the broader macro trend where signs of slowing sales are emerging? It’s unlikely in our view. Fading inflation and a peak in domestic tourism make it likely there is a sales slowdown by mid-year. Super Retail’s gross margins are likely to drop as sales slow even though it has some cost reductions in sourcing and sea freight.