We have produced a chart pack about the outlook for the liquor industry. The primary debate is the structural vs cyclical components impacting the decline in consumption. While we see structural decline, we expect it to be in the order of -0.5% per capita, per annum, far lower than the circa -6% p.a in the past two years.  We are seeing signs of improving volumes in on-premise (pubs and restaurants).

Recent Australian data on liquor demand fuels the debate about the structural and cyclical factors. Per capita liquor consumption fell 6% between FY23 and FY24 and we see another -6% for FY25. This sounds sobering. However, the industry is still coming down from its COVID-19 binge and sustaining the long-term structural decline seen over the past 20 years. The silver lining is the magnitude of the decline in liquor markets is likely to ease. Beer volumes have turned positive on-premise. We expect retail liquor to return to growth in the December 2025 quarter. The real opportunity in the liquor industry is to tap into the trend towards premiumisation and RTDs, where Endeavour and Coles both under-index.

We have produced a chart pack with category forecasts for the Australian liquor industry reset (see PDF report). This liquor outlook provides two insights – 1) The weakness in sales is more a function of the COVID-19 spike in demand than a structural concern. 2) The recalibration of liquor demand differs across categories, with wine and RTDs likely to see better demand from affordability and drinking preference. The data includes actual consumption trends for Australian households to the end of FY23.