Coles reported FY25 EBIT up 7.5% on a 52-week basis. Growth was stronger in Supermarkets, partly offset declines in Liquor and higher overheads. Coles has had a strong start to FY26e sales in Supermarkets, which we largely attribute to market share gains. The combination of better sales, one-off costs from last year rolling off and supply chain savings should support group EBIT growth of 12.5% in FY26e. We expect growth to then step down to 5%-7% in FY27e and beyond.

Retail prices have risen substantially over the past three years in Australia, and surprisingly there has been little damage to volumes. In Issue 7 of Price Watch, we assess the relative price movements in retail. Retail price inflation has generally only tracked broader inflation and therefore its relative affordability remains good. Moreover, our analysis across many large retailers reveals they have been meticulous in ensuring price relativities between brands and private labels have been held. Even with sensible measures on price, retailers should brace for a consumer that will increasingly substitute to different pack sizes, brands or even delay their purchase. These behaviours tend to build over time in both food and non-food retail categories.