Accent Group will provide a trading update at its November AGM. Like-for-like sales growth for the first seven weeks of FY25e was 3.5%. We expect trends to have slowed slightly and forecast 1H25e like-for-like sales of 2.8%. We have included the recently announced distribution agreements to our forecasts.  We also consider peer commentary on gross margin and competitive behaviour.

Accent Group reported FY24 EBIT of $128 million, adjusted for impairment, down 1% against a 52-week comparable. The trading update of like-for-like sales of 3.5% was a slowdown on the 4.1% achieved in 2H24. A lower 2H24 gross margin, explained by an inventory write-down, was in contrast to the 136bp gross margin improvement in 1H24. Given positive trading momentum, structural gross margin improvement strategy and the exit of underperforming banners and sites we see Accent Group growing earnings by a 9.5% CAGR over the next 3 years.

Accent Group provided a trading update and details around the planned closure of 17 stores operating under the Glue Store banner. The company highlighted strong second half like-for-like sales trends at 4.1%. This strong performance into the second half of the year was ahead of consensus at -0.4% for 2H24e. The store closures will lower group sales but we lift our gross margin expectations and see improved cost of operations from exiting a portion of the higher cost Glue Stores.

Accent Group reported EBIT down 21%, but down 11% when adjusting for the extra week of trading in 1H23. Strong store rollout will drive an uplift in sales, recent gross margin improvements hold but costs growth remains elevated. The challenge for Accent Group is achieving positive comp sales while holding gross margin improvement to mitigate cost inflation, especially prevalent in wages and rents. Strong cash conversion and landlord contributions assisting new store rollout means a healthy dividend payout ratio can be retained.

We initiate coverage of footwear and apparel retailer Accent Group. The company has store rollout potential to grow by 240 stores in four years, or a 6.6% CAGR. Moreover, the evolving product mix contributes to higher gross margins as more vertically sourced product and more higher margin apparel goods are sold. However, the company is facing rising cost of doing business coupled with a period of slowing same store sales which puts pressure on margins in FY24e. The store network growth potential and gross margin gains will help lift margins in FY25e and more so in FY26e.