Super Retail Group’s trading update provides divergent implications with sales improving slightly, but gross margins deteriorating a little in Feb-April 2024. Rebel has accelerated a little, while BCF slowed. The commentary on gross margins is a little softer. The company outlined the implications of its recent wage agreement, which will entrench higher cost growth for FY25e.

Endeavour Group reported normalised sales growth of 1.0% for 3Q24. The retailer’s challenge is a tough industry backdrop. We expect soft sales trends to continue as the liquor retail industry undergoes a normalisation of volume and pubs experience some trading down behaviour. Even so, sales trends should improve slightly in 4Q24e and FY25e for Endeavour.

Woolworths 3Q24 sales result was soft across the board. Will trends improve from here? We expect Woolworths relative performance to improve in each of its divisions in 4Q24e albeit the ongoing industry-wide slowdown will result in a very modest uplift. Woolworths weak growth relative to Coles is largely attributable to transitory factors. We expect 4Q24e comp growth of 1.2% for Woolworths and 2.5% for Coles. However, with less than 2% comparable sales growth, Woolworths will need cost savings to maintain earnings.

Coles reported 3Q24 comparable sales growth of 4.2% for its Supermarkets. It was a good quarter for Coles. However, we expect it is a peak in growth with some transitory factors and fading inflation leading us to forecast 2.5% comparable growth for 4Q24e. Liquor had a much weaker period and sales declines are likely to continue as the industry volumes reset lower and Coles unwinds some loss-leading sales.