Coles’ investor day last week kept the messages high level and consistent about its strategy with an emphasis on value, digital evolution and efficient execution. The focus was its online and distribution centre automated fulfillment. While Witron is clearly proven, for the Ocado CFCs, we expect the payback will be very long-dated. Coles recent capex projects will lift profit margins over the next two years. 

Wesfarmers held its annual strategy day and, as always, delivered a consistent message about its focus on long-term shareholder value creation.  The tone of Wesfarmers annual strategy presentation focused more on growth initiatives and highlighted the progress on productivity and technology investments. While a positive presentation, the detail is unlikely to change consensus earnings expectations and the share price remains very stretched.

Domino’s strategy day addressing its Australia/NZ and Asia segments reinforced its long-term ambition for growth. While Australia/NZ is performing well, Japan has challenges because too many stores have been opened too quickly. The issue of franchisee profitability was raised and structural challenges in Japan, Taiwan and France acknowledged by management. As a result, investors should brace for lower store growth including a lowering of the medium-term targets. Store growth of 4%-6% is more realistic than the current 7%-9% target.

Endeavour Drinks Hotel Strategy Day highlighted a clear focus on efficiency at scale and refurbishment of its hotels. The business had lacked that focus under Woolworths ownership and the initiatives should lift earnings. Patience is required as the benefits will flow from FY26e onwards. The detailed financial scorecard disclosed by the company is also a big step forward in accountability. We still incorporate a risk to earnings from regulatory changes. While the exact form is not clear, on a 3-5 year horizon, there could be a hit to Hotel earnings.

Wesfarmers’ strategy day highlighted its growth projects and market share opportunities, despite an increasingly challenging economic environment. The businesses may be relatively resilient, but they are not immune. The combination of slowing sales and rising operating costs keep us cautious.

Metcash’s strategy day outlined more initiatives to drive sales growth and higher capex. The strategy is logical given its market position and more profitable retailers. In our view, revenue growth will be structurally better than historically. In food, the market is more rational both for store growth and pricing, which will mean much better growth than 2010-2019. In Hardware and Liquor, as a clear number two, the company has opportunities to drive new stores and refurbishments. While growth is stronger, capex will be over $200 million a year and in part a necessary investment in supply chain and IT to enable growth.

Metcash will host an investor day on 17 and 18 October 2022. This is the first opportunity for new CEO Doug Jones to set his agenda for the company. We expect the focus to be about initiatives that drive sales, more so than margins. Updating the company’s IT and distribution centres is likely to be a near-term focus. We will look for information about initiatives to drive more store refurbishments as well. We are interested in longer-term challenges such as developing a better value offer and private labels; considering expansion into food service or pharmacy and how the business will compete online. The strategy may not move numbers much, other than higher capex in our view.

Wesfarmers strategy day was as comprehensive as usual but did leave us with a few unanswered questions about the finer details of its digital plans, capex outlook and Health ambitions. We expect growth in trade for Bunnings will be difficult without capex and the digital opportunity will take time to build traction. We remain cautious on Bunnings sales outlook.

Endeavour’s strategy day investor presentations showed growth options in hotel redevelopments, store and hotel renewals, eCommerce and own label products. Pulling it together, we see the company as a 7%-9% EPS growth business. The investor day also provided a reminder that more capex will be needed to fund growth. Capex is likely to average over $400 million per annum over the next three years. We think the growth options are logical, but caution that FY23e will be low growth as the company laps elevated liquor sales.