Premier Investments and Myer today confirmed the proposal to merge Premier Apparel Brands and Myer. Premier shareholders will receive 7.2 Myer shares at a post synergies 13.0x PE valuation. Premier Investments retains high margin Peter Alexander and Smiggle and an investment in Breville.

Premier Investments reported FY24 Retail EBIT down 9% to $326 million. Gross margins finished higher with a second-half increase of 94bp. Cost management during FY24 helped offset the operational leverage of lower sales. The delayed strategic review allows the board to focus on the Myer merger proposal. 

Premier Investments has provided a trading update stating FY24e sales will be $1.60 billion and Retail EBIT (pre AASB-16) at $326 million. The result suggests 2H24 sales fell by 2% with EBIT down 15%. Weak sales trends are likely across the board, with Peter Alexander sales per store and Smiggle soft too. The weaker 2H24 EBIT margin decline is a function of operating cost growth exceeding sales growth in our view.

Myer’s proposed merger with Premier’s Apparel Brands is a convenient solution for two ex-growth businesses. For Premier, the inferred multiple is only 4.1x EV/EBIT, which is low. Premier shareholders could receive 8.2 Myer shares, with upside through an estimated $55 million in synergies. The majority of the synergies will come from adding Premier to Myer stores in concession space and improved terms on sourcing product. The merger raises the prospect that a further Strategic Review for Premier is unlikely to crystallise much value.

Premier has provided an update on earnings for 1H24e ahead of its AGM. The decision to provide guidance that 1H24e EBIT will be near $200 million is unusual so early in the half and the lack of sales commentary makes it more difficult to gauge the drivers of the earnings change. EBIT of $200 million for 1H24e would be down 10% on the same time a year ago.

Premier Investments has provided a trading update that reveals that 2H23 sales rose 1.3% and Retail EBIT fell 2.2%. In light of a weaker backdrop it is a good result. The company has also announced a strategic review that could result in separation of Peter Alexander and Smiggle and release value in its franking credit balance.

There is much to debate about when retail sales slow, how far sales drop and how much margin downside will be associated with the sales weakness across the sector. We think the central driver of the debate is how quickly and far interest rates rise. In our base case (67% probability), the RBA reaches 2.5% cash rate by December 2022. In our downside case (33% probability), the cash rate reaches 4.5% by June 2023. There is downside risk to earnings for retailers over the next 18 months. We expect a volatile 12 months and advocate caution.

Premier Investments 1H22 result was well flagged. The more interesting perspectives are that its gross margin remains high and rents are resetting as a lower share of sales. Sales trends so far in 2H22e are solid, which should provide EBIT growth in the half. The major share price driver for Premier from here is likely to be the ways it utilises its net cash position.

City Chic has a strong sales growth outlook but profit margins are likely to remain near current levels. Premier has a modest sales growth outlook from here and profit margins may fall. However, we see optionality given the company’s balance sheet. Premier may accelerate Peter Alexander store rollout, acquire a controlling stake in Myer or acquire a fashion business in youth apparel or accessories.