The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The recording is embedded in the email and details our revised forecasts for retail in the year head. We addressed the impact of higher interest rates, lower house prices and retail price inflation. All these factors will shape the timing and shape of a retail sales slowdown in FY27e. The presentation deck is now live on the website. 

The Australian retail sector is just commencing its slowdown, which will result in slower sales in FY27e. We forecast retail sales growth of 3.7% for FY27e, down from 5.0% achieved in FY26e. The slowdown is more dramatic in non-food retail and dining out. Both had above average growth in FY26e and will suffer weaker volumes as income growth slows and both house prices and housing churn weigh on retail sales. The weakness should become evident in the December 2026 quarter where households will see the lowest rate of income growth. Other factors that will impact retail include the inflation backdrop which will step-up more so in food categories. House price changes and the resulting wealth effect will also be a key swing factor over the next 12 months.