Accent Group will provide a trading update at its November AGM. Like-for-like sales growth for the first seven weeks of FY25e was 3.5%. We expect trends to have slowed slightly and forecast 1H25e like-for-like sales of 2.8%. We have included the recently announced distribution agreements to our forecasts.  We also consider peer commentary on gross margin and competitive behaviour.

The festive season is the key profit driver for almost all Australian retailers. Its shape has shifted meaningfully over the past decade as Australian shoppers have embraced Black Friday promotions. We expect an even bigger November sales period in 2024 as more retailers and consumers position for Black Friday deals. While November gets bigger, it has largely been at the expense of December sales. The timing of promotional events is also shifting a little and we may see promotions earlier in November this year. The primary risk for retailers is longer, deeper discounting impacting gross profit margins.