Accent Group will provide a trading update at its November AGM. Like-for-like sales growth for the first seven weeks of FY25e was 3.5%. We expect trends to have slowed slightly and forecast 1H25e like-for-like sales of 2.8%. We have included the recently announced distribution agreements to our forecasts.  We also consider peer commentary on gross margin and competitive behaviour.

Premier has provided an update on earnings for 1H24e ahead of its AGM. The decision to provide guidance that 1H24e EBIT will be near $200 million is unusual so early in the half and the lack of sales commentary makes it more difficult to gauge the drivers of the earnings change. EBIT of $200 million for 1H24e would be down 10% on the same time a year ago.

City Chic’s trading update showed that sales trends remain weak, but the company is rapidly clearing excess inventory. The sales declines are likely to ease by the end of calendar 2023. Gross margins could recover by 20 percentage points in 2H24e. City Chic’s past mistake of excess inventory is being corrected.

Super Retail Group provided a trading update to mid-October 2023 which revealed sales conditions improved slightly and gross margins are steady. The downturn in retail sales is proving orderly and predictable for many retailers. Super Retail’s net cash position provides the option to pay out another special dividend.

Costa emphasised an “exceptional” period in its International operations. Morocco has benefited from good yields and relatively high prices, given the rival Spanish blueberry harvest has been poor. China has had the increased hectares contribute revenue alongside higher prices. We think there will be some normalisation in FY24e and forecast EBITDA of $97 million.

Domino’s AGM trading update has ignited the debate about the extent to which the company has been a beneficiary of COVID-19 lockdowns. Japan is likely seeing -25% same store sales in October. Sales declines in Japan are likely for another 12 months and Europe may have a very soft 2H22e as well.  Domino’s is a well-run business with good long-term growth, but its sales and earnings will reset as lockdowns ease.