We have initiated coverage of Myer (MYR), a domestically focused department store retailer with an industry leading loyalty program, a $700 million online business and a national store footprint of over 50 stores. Myer department stores have a value proposition in the in the mid to high value range. While the merger of Myer and Premier Apparel Brands builds scale, the combined business has weak sales trends and thin margins. Earnings growth in the next three years is driven by the delivery of synergies. The combined group will then grow modestly unless we see the exit of one or more competitors. Any misstep in achieving the synergies will not be well received in our view. 

Myer’s proposed merger with Premier’s Apparel Brands is a convenient solution for two ex-growth businesses. For Premier, the inferred multiple is only 4.1x EV/EBIT, which is low. Premier shareholders could receive 8.2 Myer shares, with upside through an estimated $55 million in synergies. The majority of the synergies will come from adding Premier to Myer stores in concession space and improved terms on sourcing product. The merger raises the prospect that a further Strategic Review for Premier is unlikely to crystallise much value.

Metcash’s acquisition of Superior Foods and two mid-sized hardware businesses is sensible and, in our view, best described as fairly priced. The upside in value for Metcash shareholders will come from realisation of synergies by FY26e, with potential value creation as Metcash builds scale in the foodservice and frame & truss sectors.