Australian retail sales rose 1.2% for January 2024. Half of retail categories were in decline, including notable declines in furniture, electronics, footwear and recreational goods over the month. Trading updates from a number retailers highlight stabilisation in sales trends, but at a weak level of growth. We expect subdued sales trends to persist over the next four months.

What a roller coaster it’s been for anyone importing retail goods! The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shown in the chart below peaked in January 2022 and was 5x higher than its 2019 level. As the world returns to “normal”, sea freight rates are dropping back to 2019 levels. We view freight rates as a barometer of both the supply chain strain and outsized retail demand witnessed during COVID-19. While supply chains are still recovering, inflation in import-driven categories has peaked in our view and may unwind as some of the sea freight savings are passed through. Lower inflation is one of the key triggers for slower retail sales growth over the next 12 months.

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