Many Australian consumer companies are likely to report weak 1H24e results. However, they are likely to be better than consensus estimates with slightly better sales trends and higher gross margins in some cases. While earnings should be fine this half, share prices have run in anticipation of results and the trading updates and outlook commentary are likely to flag higher operating cost growth as a headwind.

This chart pack provides subscribers with insights about the retail operating environment and outlook for wages, floor space and profit margins. The chart pack has been compiled post the FY23 reporting season across the retail market providing fresh insights about the sector.

There is anticipation of weaker results for retail this upcoming reporting season. While the June-half has been tough, for many, it may be slightly better than consensus expectations. Inventory should be down and cash flow good. We are near consensus for FY23e for most stocks and call out Domino’s and Treasury Wines where there may be downgrades to FY24e earnings.

Australian retailers will deliver good results for the upcoming reporting season in February and March 2023, once again mystifying many that worry about higher interest rates. While reporting season will reveal impressive earnings for most, we are becoming more cautious. It may sound like a contradiction, but this set of results is likely a peak and earnings could fall meaningfully over the next 18 months as sales growth falls below cost growth.

PE ratios are depressed across consumer stocks reflecting concern about an earnings decline. However, bears will need to wait at least another six months for evidence. FY22e earnings are likely to surprise on the upside for just about all retailers, trading updates will be strong and inventory should be down on February levels. It’s less clear cut how stocks will react, but any downturn is unlikely to be evident.

The February 2022 reporting season for retail, food and beverages is likely to show a wide dispersion in performance amongst companies. While sales trends have been good across the board, some have converted that to earnings better than others. We expect good results from household goods retailers like Harvey Norman but are below consensus on earnings for Domino’s and Endeavour Group. We expect stocks to be influenced by trading updates for January 2022 sales and commentary about price inflation and cost pressures. The full report provides a preview of major ASX-listed retailers potential earnings results.