Our research shows that housing churn is the strongest driver of household goods sales across Australia, the UK and NZ. Housing churn, which represents the loans on owner occupier homes and refinancing, is driven by changes to interest rates with a three month lag. Given different interest rate cycles, we forecast housing churn to drop 10% in Australia, but better outcomes in the UK and NZ in FY27e. There is a strong chance that furniture sales decline by 4% in Australia creating earnings risk for Harvey Norman, Nick Scali and Temple & Webster. JB Hi-Fi will see a slowdown in electronics categories too.