Australian retail sales rose 4.3% in May 2023, which is a solid run-rate and propped up by food categories. The declines in electronics and furniture actually eased off a little. Our barometer of the consumer’s willingness to spend remains very strong with café & restaurant sales up 15%. Retail spending has not fallen of the cliff, but volumes are weak and demand is likely to continue slowing right through 2023 and the first-half of 2024.

Australian retail sales growth for October 2022 was 12.0% year-on-year. This is still elevated given part of the month was impacted by lockdowns last year. Once again, three-year CAGR growth rates are more relevant. On that basis, recreational goods, liquor and department stores slowed. It is important to note, we will be back to single-digit industry sales growth in November given the very high base line from 2021. A more noticeable slowdown will be evident in the June quarter 2023.