The ACCC Supermarkets Inquiry report has 20 recommendations. None of these recommendations step change earnings, but the report does highlight three things. Firstly, supermarkets will have more margin volatility in fresh produce; secondly, it provides a reminder that price inflation does lift the industry profit pool; thirdly it will be difficult for Coles and Woolworths to grow market share given limits on new stores and elevated gross margins in some categories.

Retail price inflation accelerated in the December 2021 quarter, albeit the increase was not uniform across all categories. Red meat, health & beauty, hardware, furniture and auto parts all had high inflation, while fruit, appliances and clothing prices all fell year on year. Supermarket inflation only accelerated by 30bp in the quarter. We expect more noticeable price rises in categories like supermarkets, sporting goods and electronics in the first-half of calendar 2022.