The outlook for retailers this festive season is constructive. Perhaps it is best characterised as a sign of the times where consumers are acting cautiously but do have money to spend. Therefore discounts are working. Black Friday event sales were likely up 4%-7% for many retailers based on our feedback. We expect the strongest growth was online. Amazon took share. Home appliances, fashion and beauty have done best. However, there are more discounts.

The festive season is the key profit driver for almost all Australian retailers. Its shape has shifted meaningfully over the past decade as Australian shoppers have embraced Black Friday promotions. We expect an even bigger November sales period in 2024 as more retailers and consumers position for Black Friday deals. While November gets bigger, it has largely been at the expense of December sales. The timing of promotional events is also shifting a little and we may see promotions earlier in November this year. The primary risk for retailers is longer, deeper discounting impacting gross profit margins.