Australian retail sales rose 1.3% in March 2024 (0.8% seasonally adjusted). Given the timing of Easter, judging the results is problematic. However, seasonally adjusted data and our own feedback reinforces the view that sales trends remain weak across March-April. Per capita retail volumes fell 2.3% in the March 2024 quarter. Additional category detail shows weakest underlying trends in electronics, furniture, recreational goods and clothing. We expect very weak trends to persist through to June 2024 with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

JB Hi-Fi reported FY22 EBIT growth of 7%, with 2H22 EBIT rising 33%. Sales momentum has strengthened slightly in July 2022 and the first-half of FY23e should see good earnings growth. Based on our analysis, it is calendar 2023 where sales could fall and profit margins decline. We are increasingly cautious on the stock given sales trends are likely to turn negative in calendar 2023.

Link to report