Australian retail sales rose 1.2% in April 2024. To adjust for the noise of the timing of Easter we also look at the combined March-April results which shows sales growth of only 1.3%. Department stores and fashion have had the most notable slowdown over the Easter trading period. Supermarket sales are also soft considering data suggests higher inflation in March-April. We forecast subdued retail sales growth trends to continue to June 2024, with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Australian retail sales rose 1.3% in March 2024 (0.8% seasonally adjusted). Given the timing of Easter, judging the results is problematic. However, seasonally adjusted data and our own feedback reinforces the view that sales trends remain weak across March-April. Per capita retail volumes fell 2.3% in the March 2024 quarter. Additional category detail shows weakest underlying trends in electronics, furniture, recreational goods and clothing. We expect very weak trends to persist through to June 2024 with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Coles reported 3Q24 comparable sales growth of 4.2% for its Supermarkets. It was a good quarter for Coles. However, we expect it is a peak in growth with some transitory factors and fading inflation leading us to forecast 2.5% comparable growth for 4Q24e. Liquor had a much weaker period and sales declines are likely to continue as the industry volumes reset lower and Coles unwinds some loss-leading sales.