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Inghams (ING) - 1H24 result analysis

Restoring profit margins

20 February 2024

Inghams reported 1H24 sales up 9%, gross profit up 32% and EBITDA (pre AASB-16) up 66%. The impressive result needs to be put in context given weak margins in the prior year. We expect EBITDA growth of 16% in 2H24e, with a slightly higher than usual skew of earnings to first-half as volume growth slows. We expect a smaller 6% increase in EBITDA for FY25e, largely driven by lower feed costs. Inghams good growth in FY24e EBITDA will be partly dented at EPS by a higher effective tax rate at 29%, previously 23%.  

Treasury Wine (TWE) - 1H24 result analysis

Focus on luxury

19 February 2024

Treasury Wines reported earnings down 6% in 1H24. While a weak result, conditions are likely to be much stronger next half. We expect organic EBITS growth of 9% in FY24e and 5% in FY25e. The upside from China tariff removal and contribution from DAOU are the key catalysts for the business. If wine tariffs in China are removed in late March, there could be a 4%-10% EBITS uplift as the company as the company sells more mid-tier Penfolds volumes and there is a global re-pricing of the Bin range to 2H24.

Wesfarmers (WES) - 1H24 result analysis

Gross margin support earnings

19 February 2024

Wesfarmers reported 1% sales growth and 2% EBIT growth for 1H24. The result revealed meaningful growth from Kmart and a large decline in WesCEF. Bunnings EBIT rose by 0.4%. The primary drivers of the result were improved gross profit margins and a tight control on costs given high underlying cost inflation. For WesCEF, reduced prices in ammonia and lithium will result in a difficult 2H24e. Kmart is at peak margins and ongoing cost pressures will limit margin expansion across retail in our view.

JB Hi-Fi (JBH) - 1H24 result insights

Earnings normalisation underway

14 February 2024

JB Hi-Fi reported 1H24 sales down 2% and EBIT down 19%.  While a weak result year-on-year, profitability is well up on four years ago and on a normalisation path. Sales declines have abated more recently, but weak sales are likely for at least 12 months in our view. Gross margins are likely to soften further and operating cost growth will remain elevated. As a result, there is limited earnings growth over the next three years.

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