Treasury Wines reported an EBITS decline of 7% for 1H22. This fall in earnings was largely expected given brand divestments and the loss of earnings in China. The good news for the company is that it should see earnings growth from here. Higher margin channels should recover, grape prices are likely to fall and the acquisition of Frank Family Vineyards will contribute to earnings. The report includes a discussion about the company’s margin targets, inventory position and cost of grapes.

JB Hi Fi reported a good 1H22 result given the very elevated base from the prior corresponding half. Given its update in mid-January 2022, the new insights from the release showed solid January 2022 sales trends and a good gross margin result in The Good Guys. We expect stable sales and continued healthy gross margins to result in a fade in earnings rather than a fall off the cliff over the next two years. JB Hi-Fi also announced an off-market buyback of $250 million. We expect the company to continue holding a net cash position at the end of FY22e even after the buyback.

We initiate coverage on Costa Group, the largest fruit & vegetable grower in Australia. The company produces mushrooms, citrus, berries, avocados and tomatoes. The key determinant of earnings over the next three years will be price realisation across its domestic and international markets. We expect pricing has stabilised in Australia, but we are cautious about blueberry pricing in China and Morocco in the next 12 months. The company has a promising path for earnings growth over the next three years given increased citrus exports, its tomato glasshouse expansion and hectare growth in China.

The US wine grape crush report for 2021 shows a bigger vintage with higher grape prices. Pricing has recovered to be above 2019 levels after a depressed period in 2020. We should receive information about the Australian 2022 vintage in the next month or so, with another big harvest likely and a downside skew to grape prices. We see lower grape prices in Australia as a net benefit to Treasury given Australia would be two-thirds of its production and COGS could fall.

The February 2022 reporting season for retail, food and beverages is likely to show a wide dispersion in performance amongst companies. While sales trends have been good across the board, some have converted that to earnings better than others. We expect good results from household goods retailers like Harvey Norman but are below consensus on earnings for Domino’s and Endeavour Group. We expect stocks to be influenced by trading updates for January 2022 sales and commentary about price inflation and cost pressures. The full report provides a preview of major ASX-listed retailers potential earnings results.

The prospect of higher price inflation could significantly impact a retailer’s sales, earnings and valuation over the next three years. In Issue 2 of Price Watch, we analyse the impact price inflation has on supermarkets and non-food retailers and assess the likely volume response to price rises. The good news is even in non-food retail, price inflation 2-3 percentage points higher than average will lead to better sales, earnings and a PE re-rate.

The outlook for Coles and Woolworths in 2022 is looking better. The risks around COVID-19 costs are now well managed. We expect upside from consumer stockpiling near-term will lift sales earnings and higher food inflation over the next 12 months will be positive for earnings. In this report we look at how the COVID-19 costs may unwind and the impact that higher food inflation will have on the supermarket sector.

Retail price inflation accelerated in the December 2021 quarter, albeit the increase was not uniform across all categories. Red meat, health & beauty, hardware, furniture and auto parts all had high inflation, while fruit, appliances and clothing prices all fell year on year. Supermarket inflation only accelerated by 30bp in the quarter. We expect more noticeable price rises in categories like supermarkets, sporting goods and electronics in the first-half of calendar 2022.

While it is difficult to precisely forecast Australian retail sales given the uncertainties in the economy, we are confident enough to predict another solid year of growth. We expect retail sales to rise 3% in 2022, which is a strong result on top of 7% growth in 2020 and 5% growth in 2021. We estimate food sales will rise 4% and non-food sales to increase by 1%.  In our view, the three issues that will influence retail sales the most are the magnitude of price rises, the pace of wages growth and the extent to which consumers reallocate spending away from retail. Given COVID-19 is still with us, retail is likely to outperform once again.

We expect a more mild slowdown in Domino’s same store sales growth (SSSg) in key markets as higher COVID-19 cases are likely to lead to more sales of pizza. Our analysis of data from restaurant bookings in Japan has shown a drop recently, which is likely to lead to more home delivered food. Europe is also likely to have decent SSSg in 1H22e. In the report, we address  Domino’s Japan’s potential same store sales path; Domino’s Europe’s exposure to rising COVID-19 cases; and The upside and downside risks from here.