The US wine grape crush report for 2021 shows a bigger vintage with higher grape prices. Pricing has recovered to be above 2019 levels after a depressed period in 2020. We should receive information about the Australian 2022 vintage in the next month or so, with another big harvest likely and a downside skew to grape prices. We see lower grape prices in Australia as a net benefit to Treasury given Australia would be two-thirds of its production and COGS could fall.

The February 2022 reporting season for retail, food and beverages is likely to show a wide dispersion in performance amongst companies. While sales trends have been good across the board, some have converted that to earnings better than others. We expect good results from household goods retailers like Harvey Norman but are below consensus on earnings for Domino’s and Endeavour Group. We expect stocks to be influenced by trading updates for January 2022 sales and commentary about price inflation and cost pressures. The full report provides a preview of major ASX-listed retailers potential earnings results.

The prospect of higher price inflation could significantly impact a retailer’s sales, earnings and valuation over the next three years. In Issue 2 of Price Watch, we analyse the impact price inflation has on supermarkets and non-food retailers and assess the likely volume response to price rises. The good news is even in non-food retail, price inflation 2-3 percentage points higher than average will lead to better sales, earnings and a PE re-rate.

The outlook for Coles and Woolworths in 2022 is looking better. The risks around COVID-19 costs are now well managed. We expect upside from consumer stockpiling near-term will lift sales earnings and higher food inflation over the next 12 months will be positive for earnings. In this report we look at how the COVID-19 costs may unwind and the impact that higher food inflation will have on the supermarket sector.

Retail price inflation accelerated in the December 2021 quarter, albeit the increase was not uniform across all categories. Red meat, health & beauty, hardware, furniture and auto parts all had high inflation, while fruit, appliances and clothing prices all fell year on year. Supermarket inflation only accelerated by 30bp in the quarter. We expect more noticeable price rises in categories like supermarkets, sporting goods and electronics in the first-half of calendar 2022.

While it is difficult to precisely forecast Australian retail sales given the uncertainties in the economy, we are confident enough to predict another solid year of growth. We expect retail sales to rise 3% in 2022, which is a strong result on top of 7% growth in 2020 and 5% growth in 2021. We estimate food sales will rise 4% and non-food sales to increase by 1%.  In our view, the three issues that will influence retail sales the most are the magnitude of price rises, the pace of wages growth and the extent to which consumers reallocate spending away from retail. Given COVID-19 is still with us, retail is likely to outperform once again.

We expect a more mild slowdown in Domino’s same store sales growth (SSSg) in key markets as higher COVID-19 cases are likely to lead to more sales of pizza. Our analysis of data from restaurant bookings in Japan has shown a drop recently, which is likely to lead to more home delivered food. Europe is also likely to have decent SSSg in 1H22e. In the report, we address  Domino’s Japan’s potential same store sales path; Domino’s Europe’s exposure to rising COVID-19 cases; and The upside and downside risks from here.

Inghams has provided a business update highlighting the challenges given exploding COVID-19 cases in Australia over the past four weeks. While little financial detail was provided, we have lowered our EBITDA by $67 million to $413 million in FY22e. About two-thirds of the downgrade relates to COVID-19, the remainder is higher feed costs, which is an ongoing concern given recent spot prices are up double-digit. The company will provide more detail at its results in late February 2022.

JB Hi-Fi provided a January 2022 trading update with improving sales trends in 2Q22. NPAT of $288 million was down 9% on 1H21, but up 69% on 1H20. While many are wary an anticipated mean reversion in sales and earnings, it may be gradual. While volumes will mean revert, price inflation is likely to accelerate, gross margins are likely to be higher in The Good Guys and there will be operating leverage.

Wesfarmers trading update provides a reminder about the challenges facing the retail-centric company. Kmart’s earnings fell 56% in 1H22e on a sales decline of 10%. The fall in earnings suggests higher costs, some of which will persist as global supply chains become more expensive and online grows as a share of sales. While Kmart had a tough half, Bunnings earnings may have only fallen slightly and WesCEF was up.