Australian supermarket industry sales only rose 3% in July 2022. The slowdown is not a reflection of customers retaliating to higher prices, its merely the normalisation from lockdowns last year. In this report, we analyse the likely normalisation path in sales. Coles is likely to grow faster than Woolworths in the September quarter. However, the real winner is Metcash which is holding onto the vast majority of its customer gains. Since 2018, the fundamental shift from the majors to reduce promotions and open fewer stores has provided a better operating environment for Metcash.