The National Accounts for the March 2026 quarter paint a picture of slower household income growth, but consistent spending trends. Income growth of 5% matched broader consumer spending and retail spending trends. The consumer’s initial response to higher interest rates and petrol prices has been to save a bit less. Given savings are a healthy 6%-7% of income, we expect savings to delay the downturn in retail and see a trough in retail sales growth at close to 3% in the December 2026 quarter.