The festive season will ramp-up for retailers in the next few weeks. The consumers’ embrace of Black Friday has resulted in November sales now representing a bigger share of the annual calendar in Australia compared with the US, UK and NZ. The timing and high base makes it difficult to see a strong festive sales period in 2025. We forecast non-food sales to rise 4.0%, a slight dip on recent trends. While the sales backdrop will be decent, the risk is retailers discount earlier this year given higher inventory for some. We highlight Accent Group and Lovisa as retailers with elevated inventory levels.