Super Retail Group reported FY24 EBIT of $400 million, which was down 9% year-on-year, but up 57% on FY19 levels. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 9%. Given sales trends are starting to improve EBIT should also start to rise. The question is how much. We expect LFL sales to remain between 1%-3% and EBIT margins will be largely steady. Increased competition in auto keeps us cautious about group profit margin expansion. The company’s FY24 EBIT margin of 10.3% is about 80bp higher than FY19 supported by higher gross margins.

Reporting season across the retail, food & beverages sector is likely to highlight the resilience of profit margins for FY24e, despite weak sales. The strength of margins is a function steady gross margins and cost reductions. While good news, consensus expectations already reflect this outcome. We are above consensus on Inghams and Woolworths and below on Lovisa for FY24e EPS. We expect trading updates to influence share prices meaningfully with the risk that FY25e consensus needs to be downgraded for many. We are below FY25e consensus on Bapcor, Premier Investments, Super Retail Group and Wesfarmers.