Wesfarmers reported 1% sales growth and 2% EBIT growth for 1H24. The result revealed meaningful growth from Kmart and a large decline in WesCEF. Bunnings EBIT rose by 0.4%. The primary drivers of the result were improved gross profit margins and a tight control on costs given high underlying cost inflation. For WesCEF, reduced prices in ammonia and lithium will result in a difficult 2H24e. Kmart is at peak margins and ongoing cost pressures will limit margin expansion across retail in our view.

Wesfarmers reported FY22 EBIT down 4%. However, as COVID-19 impacts eased, 2H22 EBIT rose by 10%. The strongest growth came from WesCEF and Kmart. Bunnings had a much stronger top line result in 2H, but its margins fell at an accelerating rate. We expect Bunnings margin pressure to persist over the next two years. Kmart’s margins should rebound in FY23e and WesCEF should have another strong year given higher prices. We expect the share price to come under pressure as Bunnings sales slow in calendar 2023.