The National Accounts highlights the pinch from higher interest rates starting to show through. Household income rose 3.6% in the September 2022 quarter, down from 6.5% in the June quarter. However, savings rates are the cushion that will continue for the next six months, preventing a retail sales downturn till mid next year.  Savings dropped from 8.3% in June to 6.9% in September. The stored up savings in the bank over past 2.5 years have not been used, which keeps consumers personally confident despite a multitude of macro-economic headlines that spooks sentiment. We expect a good Christmas for retail and even decent March 2023 quarter. Retail sales will slow meaningfully, just not yet.

The Australian consumer has exited lockdowns in a strong financial position. In the December 2021 quarter, household income grew 5%, which is better than long-term trends and the savings rate was 14% of income. We estimate households have $200 billion in excess savings to fund holidays and a return to normal spending patterns. This bodes well for a soft landing in retail sales for 2022.