The debate about Australian wage rates is about to flare up as submissions are made for the FY24e minimum wage determination. We think a result anywhere from 4%-8% wage rate growth is possible. At 4%, retailers are likely to manage decent margin outcomes given some variability in staff costs. At 8%, the impact on retailer EBIT could be a hit of 5%-15%. For consumer goods producers the earnings impact could be -20%. The retailers most vulnerable are Domino’s and the supermarkets, Coles, Metcash and Woolworths. Costa and Inghams have high fixed wage costs and could be hit too, but the impact may be smoothed over two years given enterprise agreements.