Australians saved a lot of money during COVID-19. They saved $246 billion more than usual in fact. Bank data shows that households have now started drawing on that savings buffer. Is this good news or bad news? Do all demographics have savings buffers? We use demographic data to answer these questions and find that all income groups (lowest to highest) have some buffers. Amongst age cohorts, the groups aged 25 or older have saved more. Younger people have few buffers. The excess savings will result in a gradual slowdown in retail spending, potentially milder than many fear. The impact of higher interest rates will hurt higher income households the most as they carry more debt relative to income. Those over 65 are net beneficiaries of higher rates. Given data on spending by demographics, liquor and food at-home are likely to outperform. Dining out and travel may suffer when higher income earners pull back on spending.

Retail sales are a function of volume, price and mix. While volume and price receive plenty of attention, mix is often mis-understood, or not disclosed. In Issue 4 of Price Watch, we explore mix and its impact on sales. Successful businesses drive mix higher through their deliberate product and price decisions. Consumers will also make conscious choices about their basket mix depending on income, convenience, demographics and the cost of living. In the limited disclosure on mix we have, we find that it accounts for anywhere from one-quarter to half the sales growth for large retailers, with a higher contribution over the past two years. More disclosure on mix would lift perceptions about the quality of sales growth as pure price rises or excessive volume growth are often seen as unsustainable.