Costa reported FY21 EBITDA growth of 11%, or 4% excluding acquisitions. The company had lower prices in avocados in 2H21, but berries and mushrooms had a good second-half. There should be strong EBITDA growth in FY22e given acquisitions, tomato production expansion and a recovery for grapes. We forecast FY22e EBITDA of $265 million, up 21%. However, with changes to its lease structure, we only forecast 6% NPAT growth.

Inghams reported EBITDA of $222 million for 1H22. This was a decent result with flat margins despite headwinds from lockdowns adversely impacting the channel in the half. Unfortunately, COVID-19 disruptions will be more impactful on earnings in 2H22e. We estimate 2H22e EBITDA of $171 million down 26%. The impact from staff absenteeism, an adverse sales mix and oversupplied wholesale market all make for a difficult half. However, the issues should be transitory and if COVID cases continue to fall, earnings should improve from April 2022 onwards. We expect a recovery in FY23e.

Amazon Australia recently released its financial accounts, providing an interesting perspective about the battle online. We calculate that Amazon grew gross transaction value by 48% to $2.6 billion in 2021. Catch Group and Kogan had broadly flat sales. Amazon’s EBITDA margin was 1.9%, which is better than Catch and Kogan. There is an increasing intensity of competition between Amazon, Wesfarmers and Woolworths to capture customers in their “digital ecosystem”. It is not clear who will be the winner. What is clear is that it will take time and money to be successful. The costs will likely outweigh the revenue gains over the next 1-3 years.

If you would like to continue receiving updates like this, please contact us.

Chart: Sales for online retailers for 12 months to December 2021

Sales for all only represent Australian online sales. We exclude Woolworths NZ as we focus on purchases by Australian residents. Source: Company reports, MST Marquee

Super Retail Group reported 1H22 sales down 4% and EBIT down 33%. The process of normalisation in earnings has begun. We expect 2H22e sales to rise 1.3% and EBIT to fall 11%. The company’s elevated inventory position is largely skewed towards Supercheap Auto, which in inherently lower risk than its other segments. Operating cost growth will continue in 2H22e given data and digital investments, but there is some flex to manage labour costs to sales.

Amazon Australia recently released its financial accounts, providing an interesting perspective about the battle online. We calculate that Amazon grew gross transaction value by 48% to $2.6 billion in 2021. Catch Group and Kogan had broadly flat sales. Amazon’s EBITDA margin was 1.9%, which is better than Catch and Kogan. There is an increasing intensity of competition between Amazon, Wesfarmers and Woolworths to capture customers in their “digital ecosystem”. It is not clear who will be the winner. What is clear is that it will take time and money to be successful. The costs will likely outweigh the revenue gains over the next 1-3 years.

Wesfarmers reported a 12% fall in 1H22 EBIT. While the company flagged a drop in group earnings, the fall in Bunnings earnings and higher cost growth raises concerns. We expect earnings to fall in 2H22e as well. The bigger picture is Wesfarmers is lapping very strong earnings across its retail businesses from FY21. We are not concerned about price inflation creating a headwind because Wesfarmers operates in rational markets. However, higher operating costs are likely, including additional investment in digital capabilities as the company competes for a more viable position online.

Treasury Wines reported an EBITS decline of 7% for 1H22. This fall in earnings was largely expected given brand divestments and the loss of earnings in China. The good news for the company is that it should see earnings growth from here. Higher margin channels should recover, grape prices are likely to fall and the acquisition of Frank Family Vineyards will contribute to earnings. The report includes a discussion about the company’s margin targets, inventory position and cost of grapes.

JB Hi Fi reported a good 1H22 result given the very elevated base from the prior corresponding half. Given its update in mid-January 2022, the new insights from the release showed solid January 2022 sales trends and a good gross margin result in The Good Guys. We expect stable sales and continued healthy gross margins to result in a fade in earnings rather than a fall off the cliff over the next two years. JB Hi-Fi also announced an off-market buyback of $250 million. We expect the company to continue holding a net cash position at the end of FY22e even after the buyback.

We initiate coverage on Costa Group, the largest fruit & vegetable grower in Australia. The company produces mushrooms, citrus, berries, avocados and tomatoes. The key determinant of earnings over the next three years will be price realisation across its domestic and international markets. We expect pricing has stabilised in Australia, but we are cautious about blueberry pricing in China and Morocco in the next 12 months. The company has a promising path for earnings growth over the next three years given increased citrus exports, its tomato glasshouse expansion and hectare growth in China.

The US wine grape crush report for 2021 shows a bigger vintage with higher grape prices. Pricing has recovered to be above 2019 levels after a depressed period in 2020. We should receive information about the Australian 2022 vintage in the next month or so, with another big harvest likely and a downside skew to grape prices. We see lower grape prices in Australia as a net benefit to Treasury given Australia would be two-thirds of its production and COGS could fall.