Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) - Unpicking Sigma’s business model

Where’s the leverage?

Published: 07 October 2026

Sigma only has 18 months of history as a merged business and therefore an understanding of its earnings drivers is still emerging. While the growth prospects for Chemist Warehouse domestically and internationally are strong, Sigma is ultimately a wholesaler and franchisor. Modest leverage from converting revenue growth into EBIT growth is a function of its revenue mix. Close to 40% of Australian revenue is PBS prescriptions, where margins are thin. We expect revenue growth of 8% to 16% p.a and operating leverage of 1.0-1.3x over the next three years. This translates to EPS growth CAGR of 15.8% over three years but puts a greater emphasis on revenue to drive EPS.

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