The National Accounts results for the December 2025 quarter side with the RBA’s view that the consumer is in a strong position. Household income growth of 6.9% for the quarter (year on year) is well above trend. Consumer spending growth was 5.6% and discretionary spending outpaced staples spending. We view the December 2025 quarter as the peak in spending for the cycle. The combination of higher interest rates and higher petrol prices are likely to dent income growth and spending. However, the headlines about higher petrol prices may be worse than the actual outcome. A 15-35 cent lift in petrol prices would result in a 0.4% to 0.9% slowdown in retail sales growth on our estimates.