Metcash has stabilised its food market share over the past two years and Hardware sales and earnings are likely to grow meaningfully. Metcash is perceived as a COVID-19 beneficiary and therefore has struggled to re-rate in recent months. However, our analysis suggests that its market share in Supermarkets is likely stabilised for more fundamental reasons. Competitors are opening fewer stores, IGAs are no longer shutting stores and the risk of contract losses is now in the rear vision mirror. In the hardware industry, Metcash is likely to gain share given its 60% skew to trade and continued rollout of Total Tools stores.