Australian national accounts for the September quarter reveals income growth of 2.6% and spending growth of 6.0%. Our analysis highlights that the weakness in retail spending is largely due to a reallocation by consumers away from retail as activities like travel and concerts returned to normal. Wages growth remains healthy and population growth of 2.4% is another partial offset to the pressure from higher interest rates and living costs on spending. The national accounts suggests we are more likely to see a soft landing for retailers and consumers. The weakness in retail demand is likely at its peak currently and should gradually improve through calendar 2024.

The Australian National Accounts for the June 2023 quarter revealed that wages growth remains very strong and, despite a range of headwinds, households still want to spend their money. They continue to tap into stored-up savings to sustain spending habits. Wages grew 9.2%, disposable income only rose 2.1% and consumer spending was up 7.8%. The Australian economy is also benefiting from population growth of 2.4%, which should remain above trend for another 12 months. The headwinds for household will continue and retail spending is likely to remain weak give both a squeeze on living costs and a desire to spend elsewhere outside of retail. This weakness is likely to be most acute in calendar 2023, but we may not see a meaningful improvement in retail sales growth till 2025.

Australia’s national accounts for the March quarter provides a clear narrative about the state of the consumer in 2023. Wages growth is very strong and even though interest rates are starting to bite, households are still spending. They have lowered their savings and switched spending to travel and recreation. The retail downturn thus far is only partly attributable to higher interest rates. The combination of a continued switch in spend outside of retail and higher interest rates mean the downturn will become more acute over the next six months. We may not see a return to trend growth in retail until 2025.