GyG’s decision to exit the US is sooner than expected but a logical step given weak sales productivity in that market. We lift our EPS forecasts by 4% in FY26e and 37% in FY27e. As an Australian store rollout and margin expansion proposition, GyG’s prospects look good. The company’s affirmation of $85 million in Australian EBITDA suggests an EBITDA margin of 6.2% for FY26e. This is a rise of 60bp and we see 40-60bp annual margin expansion over the next three years.

Treasury Wine’s recent US investor tour provided a reinforcement of its direction, rather than any change. The company is clearly focused on premium wine growth, with an increased emphasis on new product development and a desire for bolt-on acquisitions. The reality for the company will be very low volume growth and a continued mix shift leading to modest revenue growth. Marketing investment may rise once EBITS margins targets are hit in our view. We expect 16% EBITS growth in FY23e and 11% in FY24e.