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Australian supermarkets & liquor - 3Q24 sales preview

Volumes underwehlming

29 April 2024

We expect signs of slowing sales, which reflect weak volumes and decelerating inflation. For Coles, we forecast 3Q24e Supermarket comp sales growth of 4.3%. We estimate Woolworths Food comps to rise by 1.5% and for Endeavour Retail we forecast comp sales to increase by 0.7%. While the differential in growth rates will be of interest, the bigger concern for the retailers is the continued weakness in volumes. Inflation is set to slow from here and comp sales growth could be even weaker in 4Q24e, which is a challenge for the retailers given cost growth remains far higher.

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