Coles will host an investor day on 14 November 2024. The company will showcase its major capital projects undertaken over the past five years. Witron distribution centres are impressive and Ocado may actually work. The debate in our mind is whether any competitive advantage has been built. We doubt it. Coles margins should “pop” in FY26e as the capital projects deliver and implementation costs drop. However, the medium-term growth is modest and risks remain around a higher intensity of competition along with challenges in growing market share.

Metcash’s investor day made it clear that it is looking to accelerate growth. This growth will increasingly come from store openings and Metcash will need to spend more capex to facilitate the growth. The company is in a stronger position to grow given the profitability across the network and capability of management.