Treasury Wines reported FY26e EBITS down 36%. The result reflected destocking in Penfolds, lower volumes in the Americas and higher operating costs. The earnings base should stabilise in FY27e at circa $496 million on our estimates, but this understates the true earnings potential because there will be more than $100 million in forgone profits from destocking in FY27e. The Americas segment will feel the most pain. We see underlying EBITS settling between $580-$620 million over FY28e-FY29e.