Wesfarmers trading update provides a reminder about the challenges facing the retail-centric company. Kmart’s earnings fell 56% in 1H22e on a sales decline of 10%. The fall in earnings suggests higher costs, some of which will persist as global supply chains become more expensive and online grows as a share of sales. While Kmart had a tough half, Bunnings earnings may have only fallen slightly and WesCEF was up.

We expect Super Retail Group will have a good Christmas trading period and gross margins hold up relative to strong levels from 2020. However, the company does face rising import costs and higher operating cost growth that is likely to lower EBIT margins in calendar 2022.

Price rises for raw materials have been significant over the past year. In Issue 1 of Price Watch, we analyse these input cost pressures. We look at shipping, sugar, vegetable oils, cotton and semiconductors. While observers see the cost pressures as transitory, the length and extent of the path back to normalisation will significantly impact retailer and manufacturer profits. We expect it will take another 9-18 months for prices to normalise. As a result, retail inflation will rise and there will be profit margin pressure on some, mainly manufacturers, that fail to fully pass through the cost increases.