Published: 13 March 2026
Oil price shocks are relatively rare but they do lead to a spike in fuel prices. In Issue 10 of Price Watch, we explore the duration of fuel price spikes and their impact on both consumer demand and costs across the retail value chain. The impact of a 30-cent increase in fuel prices could drop retail sales growth by 0.8% with the most substantial impact in the first five months following the spike. The most notable impact is on takeaway food, fashion and hardware sales. The impact on retailers and consumers is broader than just the fuel price impact because product transport costs, energy costs and product packaging are also impacted by oil price movements.
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