The Federal Government has lifted the Fuel Security Services Payment (FSSP) thresholds that will result in far lower risk of EBITDA losses in both Ampol and Viva’s refining businesses. We estimate the EBITDA loss scenarios would only occur at a refining margin close to LRM of US$4.50/bbl or lower Ampol or GRM of US$6/bbl for Viva. Current elevated refining margins mean the FSSP is not at all relevant for the March quarter. The real debate is how long elevated refining margins hold. The situation around oil and fuel supply remains highly uncertain and should be taken into consideration in gauging the 12-24 month outlook.