In the chart pack we discuss our view of the retail downturn, noting that it will be gradual because income growth is strong. We also analysed past retail cycles to provide a guide to the potential duration and magnitude of this downturn. We found that on average, past non-food retail cycles have unfolded over 18 months from peak to trough, and another 11 months to return to mid-cycle growth. The key risks to our retail forecasts are housing and price inflation. A greater than 10% fall in house prices would create a negative wealth effect for retail in 2027. On the other hand, price inflation likely to rise in food retail in 2027 masking some of the weakness in retail volumes.