Ampol’s 1H26e trading update revealed an even stronger half of earnings than the market expected, albeit the earnings growth was centred on trading profits given oil price volatility. Ampol stated that EBIT would be near $1,350 million for 1H26e, a rise of $946 million. The key question is the sustainability of earnings. Refining margins may stay elevated while there is Middle East conflict but lower volatility oil market would result in lower earnings.