Like most countries, Australian retail price inflation is elevated, but looks to be peaking. In Issue 6 of Price Watch, we uncover the key lead indicators of retail price inflation. We find that price changes are well correlated globally in electronics and food. Sea freight rates are a good predictor of retail prices alongside some input price indices. The spot observations on all of these indicators suggest Australian retail price inflation is likely to fall meaningfully over the next 12 months and contribute to a slowdown in retail sales growth. We may even see deflation in categories like electronics and apparel.