Costa Group (CGC) - Ripe for a change of control

Perspectives about takeover approach

Published: 07 July 2023

Costa Group has received an indicative acquisition proposal at $3.54 per share including potential dividends. Due diligence by Paine Schwartz, the potential acquirer, will conclude on 1 August. We see a 90% probability of a takeover proceeding. The indicative offer is 35% higher than where the shares were trading just prior to a news article speculating on a potential takeover and the multiple is well ahead of its average over the past three years. There is an argument that the margins are depressed, and past capital investment and acquisitions are yet to bear fruit (pun intended), but the company has inherent earnings volatility and there is an oversupply in blueberries and avocados keeping a lid on margins.

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