a2 Milk (A2M) - FY26 result analysis

A margin recovery story

Published: 31 August 2026

A2 Milk’s FY26 EBITDA had already been pre-announced. The debate centres on the earnings rebound in late FY27e and FY28e as A2 Milk deals with impacts from its supply shortage. The company’s FY27e guidance of mid single-digit sales growth and 15% EBITDA margins is somewhat conservative. However, it will take time to win over new customers. We expect 1H27e sales to fall 1% and 2H27e sales to rise 13%. We see an EBITDA margin of 15.4% for FY27e. The company will hold more inventory given the shift to its own production and margins should rise to over 18% in FY28e.

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