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La Nina may be almost over

Some relief on the horizon for commodity prices and food inflation

09 December 2022

For all Australians, it is welcome news to hear that the drivers of excessive rainfall may be easing. The Bureau of Meteorology is suggesting La Nina may be over by January or February 2023. In addition to more favourable weather, there is a silver lining for everyone because growing conditions will improve around the world. La Nina creates dry conditions for many northern hemisphere countries and tends to lift prices for soft commodities like wheat. As shown below, the wheat price tends to be higher when the Southern Oscillation Index is high (La Nina) and wheat prices tend to be lower when the Southern Oscillation Index is low (El Nino). Some of the drivers of inflation should diminish as La Nina eases.

 

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